UFC 317 Predictions: Underdogs, Upsets, and Breakdowns
With UFC 317 just around the corner, fight fans are gearing up for a stacked card featuring rising stars, seasoned contenders, and title implications across multiple divisions. Below are my predictions for each fight on the card, including underdog picks and key factors that could define the night.
Charles Oliveira (+340) vs. Ilia Topuria
Pick: Charles Oliveira
This is the boldest pick on the card, but one that could pay off big. Charles Oliveira is no stranger to adversity he’s the all time UFC leader in submissions and finishes. In this matchup, he’ll need to walk down the undefeated Ilia Topuria, who brings devastating power and pinpoint accuracy. The key to this fight lies in whether Oliveira can absorb Topuria’s early power and close the distance.
Topuria will look to keep it standing, avoid clinches, and punish Oliveira at range. However, if Oliveira manages to smother Topuria, initiate a clinch, and drag the fight into his world on the ground, the tide shifts. Watch for Oliveira’s signature move when hurt he tends to drop to his back and invite his opponent into a trap. If Topuria accepts that invitation, he may be stepping into danger.
Prediction: Oliveira by submission if he survives early; otherwise, Topuria by KO/TKO.
Alexandre Pantoja (-220) vs. Kai Kara-France
Pick: Alexandre Pantoja
Pantoja is arguably the most complete fighter in the flyweight division today. His pressure, grappling, and fight IQ are elite. Kara-France brings grit and striking power, but he’s struggled against top-tier fighters like Brandon Moreno. Pantoja has already beaten Moreno twice and is coming in with momentum as the reigning flyweight champ. Kara-France on the other hand, has lost to Moreno twice.
Prediction: Pantoja via decision or submission after wearing Kara-France down.
Brandon Royval (+107) vs. Joshua Van
Pick: Brandon Royval
Van’s boxing is elite, and his hand speed might be the fastest in the UFC right now. But this is a major step up in competition. Royval has gone five rounds with champions and faced killers the likes of Moreno and Pantoja. His unpredictability and cardio could frustrate Van over three rounds.
Prediction: Royval wins by decision through relentless pace, awkward attacks, and eventually dragging the fight to the ground.
Beneil Dariush (-115) vs. Renato Moicano
Pick: Beneil Dariush
Moicano has looked great in his recent wins, but when he’s faced elite competition, the gap has shown. Dariush has consistently fought top-10 lightweights and has the grappling chops to avoid danger on the ground. Expect Dariush to mix his wrestling and striking to neutralize Moicano’s offense.
Prediction: Dariush by submission (RNC or arm-triangle), possibly in round 2 or 3.
Felipe Lima (-173) vs. Payton Talbott
Pick: Felipe Lima
This is as close to a 50/50 as it gets. Talbott is tall, long, and powerful, while Lima is shorter but more compact and well-rounded. Lima’s five-round experience outside the UFC and his wrestling give him the edge. If he can clinch and grind Talbott against the fence, he’ll sap the explosiveness from Talbott’s game.
Still, if Talbott keeps it standing and avoids the mat, he has one-punch KO potential.
Prediction: Lima by decision, with cage control and takedowns as the difference.
Gregory Rodrigues (-212) vs. Jack Hermansson
Pick: Gregory Rodrigues
“Robocop” Rodrigues is a brutal finisher with KO power and solid jiu-jitsu. Hermansson is tricky, with unorthodox strikes and sneaky grappling, but Rodrigues is the more explosive and consistent of the two. If Rodrigues stays composed and avoids the early traps, he should walk away with a finish.
Prediction: Rodrigues via KO/TKO.
Jose Delgado (-145) vs. Hyder Amil
Pick: Jose Delgado
Delgado brings high-volume striking, discipline, and intensity to the cage. Amil is a tough competitor, but Delgado’s technical edge in boxing and pressure-based style make him the favorite here. If he can keep it standing and control the tempo, he’ll earn the W.
Prediction: Delgado via unanimous decision.
Tracy Cortez (-205) vs. Viviane Araujo
Pick: Tracy Cortez
Cortez has been steadily improving, with a solid wrestling base and rapidly developing stand-up. Araujo is a dangerous athlete but has shown cardio issues in the past. Expect Cortez to stay patient, avoid damage, and outgrind her way to a win.
Prediction: Cortez via decision.
Viacheslav Borshchev (+132) vs. Terrance McKinney
Pick: Viacheslav Borshchev
This is a classic “weather the storm” scenario. McKinney is lethal in the first round — but if you survive that, his cardio fades fast. Borshchev’s clean left hook and counter game make him a dangerous opponent, especially if he can drag this fight into round 3.
Prediction: Borshchev via TKO (round 2 or 3).
Jacobe Smith (-2300) vs. Niko Price
Pick: Jacobe Smith
These odds are enormous, and for good reason. Smith is expected to steamroll Price. With explosive takedowns and dominant top control, Smith likely finishes early by KO/TKO.
Prediction: Smith by first-round KO/TKO.
Alvin Hines (+350) vs. Johnata Diniz
Pick: Alvin Hines
Hines may be the underdog, but his pressure heavy grappling and complete MMA skillset give him a real shot. Diniz is more of a striker with limited experience defending persistent takedown threats. If Hines executes the right game plan (ground and pound), this could be a huge upset.
Prediction: Hines via decision.
Cancelled Fight: Jackson McVey vs. Chris Ewert
This fight was called off just one day before UFC 317. For the record, I had McVey as the underdog pick to watch.
Final Thoughts
UFC 317 promises excitement, with a mix of veterans, rising prospects, and potential statement wins. My most confident picks: Pantoja and Smith. My underdog picks to watch? Charles Oliveira, Brandon Royval, and Alvin Hines.
Check back after the event to see how the picks played out — and let me know who you’re backing!
thegarciareport.com 
Leave a comment