Tag: combat-sports

  • UFC 317 Picks/Predictions

    UFC 317 Predictions: Underdogs, Upsets, and Breakdowns

    With UFC 317 just around the corner, fight fans are gearing up for a stacked card featuring rising stars, seasoned contenders, and title implications across multiple divisions. Below are my predictions for each fight on the card, including underdog picks and key factors that could define the night.

    Charles Oliveira (+340) vs. Ilia Topuria

    Pick: Charles Oliveira
    This is the boldest pick on the card, but one that could pay off big. Charles Oliveira is no stranger to adversity he’s the all time UFC leader in submissions and finishes. In this matchup, he’ll need to walk down the undefeated Ilia Topuria, who brings devastating power and pinpoint accuracy. The key to this fight lies in whether Oliveira can absorb Topuria’s early power and close the distance.

    Topuria will look to keep it standing, avoid clinches, and punish Oliveira at range. However, if Oliveira manages to smother Topuria, initiate a clinch, and drag the fight into his world on the ground, the tide shifts. Watch for Oliveira’s signature move when hurt he tends to drop to his back and invite his opponent into a trap. If Topuria accepts that invitation, he may be stepping into danger.

    Prediction: Oliveira by submission if he survives early; otherwise, Topuria by KO/TKO.

    Alexandre Pantoja (-220) vs. Kai Kara-France

    Pick: Alexandre Pantoja
    Pantoja is arguably the most complete fighter in the flyweight division today. His pressure, grappling, and fight IQ are elite. Kara-France brings grit and striking power, but he’s struggled against top-tier fighters like Brandon Moreno. Pantoja has already beaten Moreno twice and is coming in with momentum as the reigning flyweight champ. Kara-France on the other hand, has lost to Moreno twice.

    Prediction: Pantoja via decision or submission after wearing Kara-France down.

    Brandon Royval (+107) vs. Joshua Van

    Pick: Brandon Royval
    Van’s boxing is elite, and his hand speed might be the fastest in the UFC right now. But this is a major step up in competition. Royval has gone five rounds with champions and faced killers the likes of Moreno and Pantoja. His unpredictability and cardio could frustrate Van over three rounds.

    Prediction: Royval wins by decision through relentless pace, awkward attacks, and eventually dragging the fight to the ground.

    Beneil Dariush (-115) vs. Renato Moicano

    Pick: Beneil Dariush
    Moicano has looked great in his recent wins, but when he’s faced elite competition, the gap has shown. Dariush has consistently fought top-10 lightweights and has the grappling chops to avoid danger on the ground. Expect Dariush to mix his wrestling and striking to neutralize Moicano’s offense.

    Prediction: Dariush by submission (RNC or arm-triangle), possibly in round 2 or 3.

    Felipe Lima (-173) vs. Payton Talbott

    Pick: Felipe Lima
    This is as close to a 50/50 as it gets. Talbott is tall, long, and powerful, while Lima is shorter but more compact and well-rounded. Lima’s five-round experience outside the UFC and his wrestling give him the edge. If he can clinch and grind Talbott against the fence, he’ll sap the explosiveness from Talbott’s game.

    Still, if Talbott keeps it standing and avoids the mat, he has one-punch KO potential.

    Prediction: Lima by decision, with cage control and takedowns as the difference.

    Gregory Rodrigues (-212) vs. Jack Hermansson

    Pick: Gregory Rodrigues
    “Robocop” Rodrigues is a brutal finisher with KO power and solid jiu-jitsu. Hermansson is tricky, with unorthodox strikes and sneaky grappling, but Rodrigues is the more explosive and consistent of the two. If Rodrigues stays composed and avoids the early traps, he should walk away with a finish.

    Prediction: Rodrigues via KO/TKO.

    Jose Delgado (-145) vs. Hyder Amil

    Pick: Jose Delgado
    Delgado brings high-volume striking, discipline, and intensity to the cage. Amil is a tough competitor, but Delgado’s technical edge in boxing and pressure-based style make him the favorite here. If he can keep it standing and control the tempo, he’ll earn the W.

    Prediction: Delgado via unanimous decision.

    Tracy Cortez (-205) vs. Viviane Araujo

    Pick: Tracy Cortez
    Cortez has been steadily improving, with a solid wrestling base and rapidly developing stand-up. Araujo is a dangerous athlete but has shown cardio issues in the past. Expect Cortez to stay patient, avoid damage, and outgrind her way to a win.

    Prediction: Cortez via decision.

    Viacheslav Borshchev (+132) vs. Terrance McKinney

    Pick: Viacheslav Borshchev
    This is a classic “weather the storm” scenario. McKinney is lethal in the first round — but if you survive that, his cardio fades fast. Borshchev’s clean left hook and counter game make him a dangerous opponent, especially if he can drag this fight into round 3.

    Prediction: Borshchev via TKO (round 2 or 3).

    Jacobe Smith (-2300) vs. Niko Price

    Pick: Jacobe Smith
    These odds are enormous, and for good reason. Smith is expected to steamroll Price. With explosive takedowns and dominant top control, Smith likely finishes early by KO/TKO.

    Prediction: Smith by first-round KO/TKO.

    Alvin Hines (+350) vs. Johnata Diniz

    Pick: Alvin Hines
    Hines may be the underdog, but his pressure heavy grappling and complete MMA skillset give him a real shot. Diniz is more of a striker with limited experience defending persistent takedown threats. If Hines executes the right game plan (ground and pound), this could be a huge upset.

    Prediction: Hines via decision.

    Cancelled Fight: Jackson McVey vs. Chris Ewert

    This fight was called off just one day before UFC 317. For the record, I had McVey as the underdog pick to watch.

    Final Thoughts

    UFC 317 promises excitement, with a mix of veterans, rising prospects, and potential statement wins. My most confident picks: Pantoja and Smith. My underdog picks to watch? Charles Oliveira, Brandon Royval, and Alvin Hines.

    Check back after the event to see how the picks played out — and let me know who you’re backing!

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  • (Bets/Picks)UFC On ESPN: Blanchfield VS. Barber

    The Garcia Report’s Personal Picks: UFC on ESPN BLANCFIELD vs. BARBER

    -255 ERIN BLANCHFIELD
    -150 MATEUSZ GAMROT
    +295 Brahimaj
    +153 BRUNO LOPES
    -130 MACY CHIASSON
    +175 Dusko Todorovic
    +103 JAFAEL FILHO
    -240 JORDAN LEAVITT
    -360 BOLAJI OAKI
    +180 ALICE ARELEAN

    G Pick: -255 ERIN BLANCHFIELD (Via Betonline.ag)
    ERIN BLANCHFIELD vs MAYCEE BARBER: This might turn out to be the closest fight on the card. I see this fight going to decision, and it can be anybody’s fight. Blanchfield is entering this fight determined, healthy, and strong. She’s looking to put on a stellar performance and she has a nice road ahead of her to be able to pull of the victory. Barber however, has been having issues cutting weight, and missed weight by half a pound. Barber is as tough of a fighter as they come, she suffocates her opponents with pressure throughout the duration of the entire fight, however, she often walks in on punches. In this fight, I see Blanchfield landing her shots, and avoiding the power punches. I predict Barber to chase Blanchfield around the ring every single round, but never being able to capitalize on big moments that may arise.

    G Pick: -150 MATEUSZ GAMROT (Via Betonline.ag)
    MATEUSZ GAMROT vs LUDOVIT KLEIN: This bout has the potential for fireworks, and can possibly win fight of the night. Klein’s ability to throw his head kick with little to no wind up, no tells, is incredible to watch. Gamrot has got to becareful with his opponents kicks. When Gamrot was fighting Tsarukyan, he was consistently getting hit with kicks to the body. Will Klein be able to expose the chinks in Gamrot’s armor? Or, will Gamrot be able to drag Klein to the ground, drown him in deep waters, and end the fight with a submission? I think so. Gamrot has tremendous strength, speed, and technique on the ground. I don’t think Klein will be able to put up with Gamrot’s relentlessness.

    G Pick: +295 Brahimaj (Via Betonline.ag)
    RAHMIZ BRAHIMAJ vs BILLY RAY GOFF: This bout features two fighters with opposite styles and tactics. Goff is talented on his feet, able to mix up combinations with nice footwork and speed. But, it seems like he doesn’t like fighting off of his back foot, and tends to allow himself to get pressed up against the cage. Brahimaj is a tenacious fighter, who is aggressive and will look for takedowns, clinches, and isn’t afraid to turn this into a rough rugged fight. Brahimaj’s downside? His chin is suspect. The question for this fight for me is, will Brahimaj be able to take down Goff and disrupt his rhythm via ground and pound? Or, will Goff showcase his phenomenal stand up by knocking Brahimaj out? Logically I would choose Goff, but if you’re looking for a big upset on this card, you may have found a pot of gold in Brahimaj. I love rooting for the underdogs, I’ll choose Brahimaj via TKO or decision. Let’s just hope his chin can weather the storm.

    G Pick: +153 BRUNO LOPES (Via Betonline.ag)
    BRUNO LOPES vs DUSTIN JACOBY: Bruno Lopes is the younger fighter heading into this bout here. Jacoby is 37 years old, meanwhile Lopes is 32. Lopes is an aggressive fighter who’s going to keep marching forward until he lands his power shots. He often leaves himself open however, after throwing his punches. When he chooses to throw, the punches are fast, strong, powerful. The holes in his stand up game, is when it’s time to bring those fists back to guard after punching. He’s a bit slow in that department, and Jacoby has proven to be capable of landing one shot sniper shots with his right hand. This is an interesting matchup, but this time I’ll side with the younger more aggressive fighter, Bruno Lopes via Decision, TKO, or KO.

    G Pick: -130 MACY CHIASSON (Via Betonline.ag)
    MACY CHIASSON vs KETLEN VIERIRA: Ketlen Vierira has size and power, but Macy Chiasson is the taller fighter and has longer reach along with a higher punch output. Chiasson may not be as strong and powerful as Vierira, but she has the speed, technique, and output advantage in this bout. I see this fight going the distance, possibly could end up being a boring one, if Chiasson chooses to play it safe. Vierira is the slower fighter out of the two, but once she chooses to explode, watch out. Nonetheless, I predict Chiasson walking away the victor via Decision.

    G Pick: +175 Dusko Todorovic (Via Betonline.ag)
    ZACHARY REESE vs DUSKO TODOROVIC: Zachary Reese has the height and reach advantage in this one. Standing at 6’3 with reach at 77 in. Dusko Todrovic has the physical disadvantage standing at 6’1 with reach at 73 in. I predict this fight to be close, but I see Todorovic being the over aggressor, thus allowing him to take Reese down and finish him via TKO, ground and pound. Reese has great stand up, and throws rapid combinations. Todrovic however, is going to make this fight ugly, get into Reese’s face, and press on the gas pedal. I see Reese becoming overwhelmed and crumbling to the pressure that will produce a flurry of ground and pound punches reigning from the top.

    G Pick: +103 JAFAEL FILHO (Via Betonline.ag)
    ALLAN NASCIEMENTO and JAFEL FILHO are earily the same type of fighters! Body have similar body styles, strength, and match up against each other well on the ground. The difference? Jafel Filho’s body is twitchier than Nasciemento’s. Meaning? Filho’s movement is faster, throws his punches with better fluidity and is swift with his footwork. Filho also throws a high volume of kicks to the legs and body. Taking this into account, I predict Filho to win. I don’t have a strong sense of how, it can either be via Submission, TKO, or Decision.

    G Pick: -240 JORDAN LEAVITT (Via Betonline.ag)

    JORDAN LEAVITT: Leavitt is a jiu-jitsu specialist who is an aggressive submission artist. However, when met with elite talent (Pimblett) Leavitt’s Jiu-jitsu was no match for Pimblett’s strength, size, and skill set. Nonetheless, if Leavitt gets a novice on the ground, he’s tapping them out. I believe he can get this done against Holobaugh.

    KURTT HOLOBAUGH: Holobaugh’s specialty is his stand up. He’s an aggressive stalker who prefers to keep the fight standing up. He throws great hooks with both hands, and can brawl. This fight against Leavitt however, is going to be the exact opposite. Leavitt will feel Holobaugh’s pressure, and immediately clinch and drag the fight to the ground, ultimately pulling off a submission victory in my opinion.

    G Pick: -360 BOLAJI OAKI (Via Betonline.ag)
    BOLAJI OAKI: This is an extremely impressive fighter. High IQ on the feet. Tremendous power but still cautious on how he enters. Nice stiff jab, doesn’t have to rush his flurries, he lets them come naturally. His best punch is his lead hook to the body! This can potentially be open if his opponent is in orthodox stance and doesn’t counter repeatedly or block. Oaki’s weakness? Appears to be the ground game. He’s strong enough to get up if taken down, but there’s a chance a true submission artist could lure Oaki into some traps.

    Michael Aswell: No information.

    G Pick: +180 ALICE ARELEAN. (Betonline.ag)
    RAYANNE DOS SANTOS: Rayanne Dos Santos has tremendous talent in the Octagon and she has all the potential in the world, but does she have enough to beat Ardelean? Dos Santos is an aggressive puncher that keeps on rumbling. As a result of this however, Dos Santos leaves herself wide open for shots to the head and the body. The key for victory for Dos Santos is to smother her opponent over and over again until her opponent fatigues out. If Dos Santos goes up against a talented striker who can dance around the ring and keep it up throughout 3 rounds, I believe she’ll lose. Not by KO/TKO, but by decision.

    ALICE ARELEAN: Alice Arelean for the victory! I predict Alice Arelean wining this fight due to her poise as a stand up fighter. She can tread lightly around the ring, but when she sits on her punches she packs power mixed with precision. She knows how to pivot and create short angles once she commits to setting her feet. Dos Santos is as tough as they come, but will she be able to survive being picked apart for 3 rounds?